When Bob flips a coin and announces the result, what can we really know about which coin he chose? This video builds probability trees to reveal how new evidence systematically updates our beliefs, ...

First, we need to estimate the pre-test probability that asymptomatic Massachusetts residents have Covid-19. We know that in the state approximately 2% of all tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that ...

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple concept behind Bayes' rule, an approach to calculating probabilities, first ...

In the 20th-century statistics wars, Bayesians were underdogs. Now their methods may help speed treatments to market.